Abraham Paulos reflects
When I was a fourth grade teacher I had a hard time keeping my students well behaved. One student in particular, Brian, was so disruptive that his action would encourage others in the class to misbehave. So to try to change his behavior, I installed a punishment system. Anytime Brian was disruptive I would punish the whole class. Initially the punishment system was effective, when Brian behaved badly the whole class would persuade him to improve his behavior. This is generally how sanctions are suppose to work but sometimes the opposite happens.
Sanctions are implemented by governments or the United Nations to apply pressure on individuals or political regimes for the improvement of foreign policy objectives. Sanctions can range from political, economic or financial penalties to travel restrictions. While the mission of sanctions is to punish abusive regimes, they often inflict additional suffering on the people who live under them.
Just like sanctions, the fourth grade punishment system initially was very efficient and successful. To get Brian to behave better, I would take five minutes off recess for the whole class anytime he would misbehave. Soon, I started noticing that the students were suffering slowly. Because recess was reduced the children's attention span disappeared and they become more restless and anxious. They became bitter and resentful of the taunts from the happy children on their way to recess. Disobedience spread like a virus, and even the well-behaved students started being disruptive. Brian, on the other hand, had adapted to the punishment well. He became indifferent about recess, embracing the newfound attention that he was receiving from his classmates, especially the girls. The students found it futile to instigate change and instead I became the victim of their frustration.
Sanctions tend to cause suffering among the innocent, the poorest and most vulnerable. Even though a fairly small proportion of the economy is at stake, disruption of the distribution of food and medicine jeopardizing the quality of food and the availability of clear drinking water creates a condition ripe for humanitarian crisis. The US sanctions against Cuba is one few sanctions worldwide that includes food and restrictions to medicine. The median weight of children and adults in Cuba, had decreased dramatically because of the food shortages. Public health catastrophes have been attributed to US sanctions such as the outbreak of optic neuropathy in, 1992 and 1993 which can lead to blindness and death. An epidemic of esophageal stenosis (a condition that narrows the passage of the throat) in toddlers who accidentally drank liquid lye is considered to be the result of a soap shortage that forced Cubans to use lye as a substitute.
Iraq is a shinning example of sanctions causing great suffering to vulnerable, innocent civilians. Sanctions were imposed on March 1991 to pressure the Saddam Hussein regime to leave Kuwait after illegally invading the country. After the First Gulf War, the sanctions took on a new purpose, to get Iraq to abide by the vague cease fire terms. It is estimated by the UN that from 1991 to 1998 one million Iraqis died of starvation and diseases as direct consequences of UN sanctions. Half of the people that died are believed to be children, though the number 500,000 deaths have been highly controversial due to the methods of research. The lowest estimation is 227,000 Iraqi children dead. Meanwhile, not only was Saddam unaffected but he manipulated the sanctions and death toll for his political advantage. After the 2003 US military invasion, the sanctions were eventually lifted.
The collapse of my fourth grade punishment system is the same reason why sanctions often fail. The goal of my punishment, to change Brian's behavior, was too vague and I never rewarded him for good behavior. The probability of the success of a sanction depends on the goals they are intended to achieve and the flexibility to reward. According to by Kimberly Ann Elliot's Economic Sanctions as a Foreign Policy Tool sanctions imposed form 1914-2000 had a 38 percent success rate. Sanctions are most effective when the imposing authority establishes clear and consistent goals for the lifting of sanctions. Success also demands that steps toward compliance by the target regime be rewarded with an easing of the sanction. With Brian for example, this would have meant a specific goal: no talking out of turn and I would reward his compliance when he raised his hand to talk.
Sanctions formulated to minimize their impact upon the well-being of the civilian population are called smart sanctions. They are considered "smart" because they refer to targeted instead of comprehensive sanctions, designed to put pressure directly on the abusive regime or individual.
The first United Nations sanctions were targeted to the white only settler regime of Southern Rhodesia (now Zimbabwe) in 1966. The goal was to produce a democratic and representative government. In 1966 the UN imposed its first mandatory sanctions on Rhodesia after the white minority unilaterally and illegally declared independence. The Sanctions were effective because of the clear goal. The sanctions were finally lifted in 1979 after negotiations led to a democratically elected black government. The U.S. and U.N. sanctions against Libya led that country to surrender suspects in several airline bombings. The flexibility of those sanctions to reward probably played a supporting role in Libya's decision to renounce its WMD program.
These examples and the more recent sanctions against North Korea and Serbia can work effectively as an alternative to military action if clear goals are formulated and compliance is rewarded when the sanctioning power is flexible. When this does not happen however, as it did initially with my 4th grade class, sanctions can be counterproductive by hurting the innocent and rewarding the guilty. Brian's punishments became more targeted with specific goals, and he was rewarded for compliance. In the end, Brian survived the fourth grade.
